December 2020: European foundries close the crisis year with a cautiously positive signal
After the European Foundry Sentiment Indicator (FISI) took a break in the recovery process in the previous month, it increased moderately again at the end of the year. The increase of 0.8 points brings the index to a value of 100.2. While the development of the current situation is evaluated differently depending on the material, but is stable overall, expectations for the next six months in particular have increased significantly. Despite the in many cases significantly intensified pandemic countermeasures, which are affecting life in large parts of Europe, the foundries are slightly more optimistic about the coming six months.
The vaccinations that began in December in most European countries raise hope to the companies. Meanwhile, the difficulties in executing the vaccination campaigns, which had already become noticeable in some regions, were not anticipated when the data were collected, nor were possible influences from more contagious mutated forms of the virus. The long-awaited consensus in the negotiations on a trade and cooperation agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom will also first be reflected in the data for the following month.
Meanwhile, the Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) continues its recovery. In December, it increased by 0.2 points to an index value of ‑0.4 points and thus for the seventh time in a row.
The FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator – is the earliest available composite indicator providing information on the European foundry industry performance. It is published by the European Foundry Association (CAEF) every month and is based on survey responses of the European foundry industry. The CAEF members are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation in the foundry sector and their expectations for the next six months.
The BCI – Business Climate Indicator – is an indicator published by the European Commission. The BCI evaluates development conditions of the manufacturing sector in the euro area every month and uses five balances of opinion from industry survey: production trends, order books, export order books, stocks and production expectations.
Tillman van de Sand
Secretary Commission for Economics & Statistics
phone: +49 211 68 71 — 301