April 2023: Eat from the stock
The European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (FISI) records the second decrease in a row. Rating of 0.5 index points lower than in March, the index reaches a value of 103.3 points in April.
What at first appears to be clearly negative turns out to be less uniform in the analysis of the individual factors. European foundries recently assessed the current business situation as better than in the previous month. Expectations for the coming six months, on the other hand, were more pessimistic. This is in contrast to the development of the past months, in which the significant gap between pessimistic expectations and a positive assessment of the situation began to diminish.
Working off the order backlog leads to a more positive assessment of the current business situation than a month ago. It is to be expected that the situation will deteriorate again over the coming months if order impulses do not become noticeable in the long term.
The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) decreases by 0.14 points in April and brings the index to 0.54 points. Overall, the selling price expectations for the month ahead are decreasing together with the production expectation for the month ahead in comparison to the previous month starting from a high level. A negative stimulus is furthermore noted by the reduction of the assessment of order-book levels.
The FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator – is the earliest available composite indicator providing information on the European foundry industry performance. It is published by CAEF the European Foundry Association every month and is based on survey responses of the European foundry industry. The CAEF members are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation in the foundry sector and their expectations for the next six months.
The BCI – Business Climate Indicator – is an indicator published by the European Commission. The BCI evaluates development conditions of the manufacturing sector in the euro area every month and uses five balances of opinion from industry survey: production trends, order books, export order books, stocks and production expectations.
Tillman van de Sand
Secretary Commission for Economics & Statistics
phone: +49 211 68 71 — 301