October 2019: Are perspectives bottoming out?
The European Foundry Industry Sentiment fell slightly in October. The European foundries´ assessment of the current business situation was somewhat worse than in the previous month. By contrast, the outlook has improved slightly, but remains on a low level. This is in line with the slight improvement of the Business Climate Indicator of the Euro area.
The trade tensions have eased due to no hard Brexit on 31st of October and due to signs for a possible partial agreement in the US-China conflict. Nevertheless, the export prospects remain fragile for the time being and potential punitive tariffs on European passenger car and component deliveries to the US are still being considered. Against this background and given declining orders, the question arises to which extent the expectations will stabilise at a low level in the medium term.
The FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator – is the earliest available composite indicator providing information on the European foundry industry performance. It is published by the European Foundry Association (CAEF) every month and is based on survey responses of the European foundry industry. The CAEF members are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation in the foundry sector and their expectations for the next six months.
The BCI – Business Climate Indicator – is an indicator published by the European Commission. The BCI evaluates development conditions of the manufacturing sector in the euro area every month and uses five balances of opinion from industry survey: production trends, order books, export order books, stocks and production expectations.
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