March 2019: Polit­ical uncer­tain­ties are lim­it­ing the per­spect­ives

The European Foundry Industry Sen­ti­ment Indic­ator (FISI) has passed the eco­nomic peak in Septem­ber 2018. Com­pared with the Busi­ness Cli­mate for the whole industry in the Euro area, the foundry industry nearly fol­lows a sim­ilar trend: After a long-term steady and growth ori­ented tend­ency till the begin­ning of 2018, the cur­rent busi­ness situ­ation is con­tinu­ously good. On the other hand, the expect­a­tions for the next six months are slightly under pres­sure. This can be traced back to dis­tinct reas­ons and geo­pol­it­ical uncer­tain­ties: The decision about pos­sible US-tar­iffs for European pas­sen­ger cars as well as com­pon­ents is still pending. In addi­tion, the prob­ab­il­ity of a Hard Brexit is increas­ing day by day.

The FISI – European Foundry Industry Sen­ti­ment Indic­ator – is an early indic­ator of the European foundry industry per­form­ance. It is pub­lished by the European Foundry Asso­ci­ation (CAEF) every month and is based on sur­vey responses of the European foundry industry. The CAEF mem­bers are asked to give their assess­ment of the cur­rent busi­ness situ­ation in the foundry sec­tor and their expect­a­tions for the next six months. The FISI is the earli­est avail­able indic­ator, provid­ing inform­a­tion about the mood in the foundry industry.
The BCI – Busi­ness Cli­mate Indic­ator – is an indic­ator pub­lished by the European Com­mis­sion. The BCI eval­u­ates devel­op­ment con­di­tions of the man­u­fac­tur­ing sec­tor in the Euro Area every month and uses five bal­ances of opin­ion from industry sur­vey: pro­duc­tion trends, order books, export order books, stocks and pro­duc­tion expect­a­tions.