November 2020: So far no further collapse despite exploding numbers of Covid-19 cases
In November, the European Foundry Sentiment Indicator (FISI) remains at the previous month’s level. The minimal decline of 0.1 index points to the level of 99.6 is equally based on the almost unchanged assessment of the current situation and expectations for the next six months.
That the positive turnaround of the previous month did not consolidate into a trend is not surprising. Although the positive effects due to the successes in vaccine development are reflected in the November data for the first time, these data must be seen in the context of the rapidly increasing number of Covid-19 cases in recent weeks, which were not foreseeable to this extent at the beginning of October.
These influences are also reflected in the development of Business Confidence Indicator (BCI). Still with a slight increase of 0.1 to ‑0.6 points, the speed of the recovery is slowing down.
The FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator – is the earliest available composite indicator providing information on the European foundry industry performance. It is published by the European Foundry Association (CAEF) every month and is based on survey responses of the European foundry industry. The CAEF members are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation in the foundry sector and their expectations for the next six months.
The BCI – Business Climate Indicator – is an indicator published by the European Commission. The BCI evaluates development conditions of the manufacturing sector in the euro area every month and uses five balances of opinion from industry survey: production trends, order books, export order books, stocks and production expectations.
Tillman van de Sand
Secretary Commission for Economics & Statistics
phone: +49 211 68 71 — 301