March 2022: War in Ukraine raises substantial economic uncertainties
The European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator (FISI) decreases by 1.6 points in March and reaches a value of 108.2 points. Economic disruptions following the war in Ukraine thus have a clear impact on the European foundry industry.
The associated uncertainties play a great role when it comes to expectations for the upcoming six months. These are collapsing across the board. At the same time, the assessment of the current business situation remains relatively stable in the first month after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
While the availability of metals is already partly limited and occasionally impacts production, the considerable cost increases on the energy markets are already threatening the existence of many foundries, even though a gas embargo has not yet been decided.
The indirect effects of the overall economic cost increases and the fragile international supply chains will, however, become more noticeable, especially in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) dropped in March. The noticeable decrease of 0.12 points brings the index to 1.67 points. This marks the lowest level for seven months.
The FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator – is the earliest available composite indicator providing information on the European foundry industry performance. It is published by the European Foundry Association (CAEF) every month and is based on survey responses of the European foundry industry. The CAEF members are asked to give their assessment of the current business situation in the foundry sector and their expectations for the next six months.
The BCI – Business Climate Indicator – is an indicator published by the European Commission. The BCI evaluates development conditions of the manufacturing sector in the euro area every month and uses five balances of opinion from industry survey: production trends, order books, export order books, stocks and production expectations.
Tillman van de Sand
Secretary Commission for Economics & Statistics
phone: +49 211 68 71 — 301